Summary
The restaurant industry is entering 2026 with shifting consumer expectations, rising competitive pressure, and a more demanding investment landscape — making clarity of brand value and operational discipline more essential than ever. Industry experts point to the strategies that will define the restaurant brands best positioned to win in the year ahead.
- Brand differentiation now depends on deep, current insight into what guests uniquely value — and the ability to consistently reinforce that value across all touchpoints.
- Guest experience is becoming the central strategy, as consumers grow more selective and expectations converge across dining categories; service quality, consistency, and hospitality increasingly outweigh pure price messaging.
- The bar for both public and private transactions is rising, with restaurant M&A investors demanding proven performance, disciplined execution, realistic growth plans, and clear exit pathways well before committing capital.
- Leaders who can translate insight into decisive, well-communicated action stand apart, ensuring alignment across employees, franchisees, guests, and investors.
- Brands that pair strategic clarity with operational rigor and hospitality excellence will be best positioned to outperform, regardless of macro conditions.
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On the heels of one of the most dynamic restaurant landscapes in recent years, a number of forces bear down on us all: shifting consumer habits, rising competition, persistent macroeconomic challenges. These pressures are causing restaurant operators to rethink how they attract and retain guests while maintaining sustainable growth. At this year’s Restaurant Finance & Development Conference, I had the privilege of moderating a conversation with advisors who sit at the center of today’s dealmaking environment: John Tibe, Managing Director at Jeffries; Aaron Weisbrod, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan; Susan Miller, Partner at Morgan Kingston Advisors; and Alan Gallup, Principal at National Franchise Sales.
During our panel, “Is the Restaurant Sector Ready to Reignite?” we explored what will separate winning brands in the restaurant M&A environment in 2026. With evolving market dynamics influencing valuations, deal flow, and exit paths, our panelists walked through what’s driving transactions today and how these forces are likely to shape the 2026 landscape. They offered decisive insight into what leaders need to focus on next year.
Restaurant Brands Must Adapt to a Changing Market
A clear theme throughout our discussion: the importance of a deep, current understanding of how the brand delivers meaningful value to its consumers.
We all understand the basics of adaptive brand management: stay close to consumer behavior, articulate a clear value proposition, engage guests across multiple channels. But in today’s dealmaking environment, the basics are no longer sufficient.
Competitive differentiation comes from achieving precise understanding of what guests value from your brand specifically – how they perceive your brand relative to others, what about your brand resonates, what keeps them coming back time and time again. Every business, brand, and reputation management decision must reinforce those distinctive elements. Brands that can demonstrate the steps they’ve taken to achieve this level of clarity are the ones that maintain pricing power, protect traffic, and ultimately command stronger valuations.
Economic volatility will continue to shape consumer behavior, and brands are inevitably tested by these shifts. But capturing the upside will still depend on knowing what shouldn’t change — the core elements that must stay consistent even as the model adapts. Leaders who can distinguish between what to evolve and what to protect are the ones preserving brand equity, maintaining guest trust, and creating the kind of stability investors look for.
As John Tibe of Jeffries pointed out, tighter times often bring operators back to the essentials: “What is the core of what I’m offering the guest? And when times are tough, why do they come to my brand versus the other brands we compete with today?”
Guest Experience is the Strategy for 2026
Yet these questions are becoming more difficult to answer at the very moment the bar is being raised. Consumers are more selective with their discretionary spending, increasingly focused on whether what they’re paying for feels worth it. As John framed it, “The consumer is demanding more and more value for what they’re getting.” As a result, traditional lines separating dining categories are blurring, and expectations across quick service, fast casual, and casual dining are converging in ways that weren’t as pronounced 10 or 15 years ago.
So what’s rising to the top of the consumer expectations list right now? Consensus from the panel is that quality of experience, thoughtfulness of service, and consistency are redefining restaurant brand value, beyond price. As Susan Miller of Morgan Kingston Advisors noted, that value isn’t always tied to discounting: “Value can mean service with a smile, a warm basket of bread on the table, actually experiencing hospitality.” This is a return to the brilliant basics of brand management — how people and brand interact from the first moment to the last bite.
For leaders, the message is clear: guest experience isn’t merely a differentiator anymore; it’s the strategy. Brands that invest in delivering experiential consistency, value clarity, and genuine hospitality are the ones building durable strength in an increasingly selective market.
The Bar Is Rising for Public and Private Market Transactions
Another major takeaway from our discussion: the bar is higher, and in 2026 will continue to climb, for both public and private market transactions. This was probably the most energizing part of the discussion for me, because it sits squarely within ICR’s wheelhouse and is a lived reality I’ve been helping companies navigate for some time. The elevated performance expectation will only intensify as we head into 2026 and face a potential glut of pent-up IPOs.
Growth projections were once the primary factor influencing investment decisions in this industry. Today’s investors look for more: they want consistency across geographies, clarity on how the business performs today, confidence that growth and returns are grounded in reality. The rigor is higher than it was before massive socioeconomic earthquakes — the pandemic, global geopolitical conflict, and AI labor market upheaval, to name a few — reshaped investor priorities and risk perspectives.
Aaron Weisbrod of J.P. Morgan, who worked on the Black Rock Coffee IPO this year — the first for the industry since 2023 — underscored this evolution: “The market for restaurant IPOs never really went away, but the standards to succeed are demanding.”
Investors Want a Credible Plan Backed Up By Performance
Investors go beyond reviewing unit economics and market potential to assess whether they can realistically back a target’s demonstrated level of growth and whether the company can deliver that level consistently quarter after quarter. They expect to find discipline, diligence, and an ability to execute at scale when they look under the hood. This is a self-reinforcing pattern: such rigor produces stronger outcomes for brands, and stronger brands deliver better returns for investors – which only makes investors more scrutinous, selective, and risk-sensitive. As a result, they have little interest in taking a leap of faith.
The same themes apply in private markets. Investors want a credible, defensible plan supported by performance they can see today and reasonably project forward. Exit strategy, as Aaron noted, has moved from an afterthought to one of the first questions in investor diligence. Is the brand healthy? Is the opportunity real? And critically: if they invest, how do they get their capital out? In a sector with relatively little strategic M&A, clarity on “how do we get out?” is a high priority and part of the conversation far sooner than it used to be.
Taken together, these trends reflect a market that’s maturing. In my experience advising private-sector restaurant clients, what stands out today is how much more interconnected performance, brand strategy, and investor expectations have become. And this won’t go away in 2026. Investors will continue to take a more holistic view when evaluating whether a concept can scale, whether the guest experience can be replicated, and whether operational excellence is baked into every layer of the business. Meeting these expectations will require a level of foresight, cross-market discipline, and repeatable execution that simply wasn’t as critical even a few years ago.
Restaurant Brand Leadership Is the Differentiator
Perhaps the clearest throughline across the conversation was the role of effective brand leadership. What sets the winning brands apart is less the size of their footprint and more the quality of decision-making at the top. Leaders who can translate insight into action — whether adapting the guest experience, prioritizing investments, or responding to investor expectations — are the ones shaping meaningful outcomes.
And critically, that translation starts with communication. Across industries, we know strategy is most effective when leaders can clearly articulate what they’re doing and why to the stakeholders who matter most.
- Restaurant employees need to understand what’s being implemented and how it connects to the work they do every day.
- Guests need a grounded sense of what the brand stands for and why it delivers a better experience right now.
- Franchisees depend on clarity around priorities, standards, and the investments that support unit-level performance.
- And investors want a view into what a plan requires in practice, how quickly it can be delivered, and whether the organization can execute it consistently.
Alan Gallup of National Franchise Sales pointed to ineffective leadership as a common thread among recent bankruptcies: “I think one of the things that we see as a common thread amongst this uptick in bankruptcies … is ineffective brand leadership … If they’re in those chairs, they have to be bringing about innovation, execution, and understanding the cultural changes.”
I’m grateful to Susan, John, Aaron, and Alan for an insightful discussion. Their perspectives reinforce the importance of the fundamentals as we move into 2026. The brands that will thrive will be the ones doubling down on delivering exceptional guest experiences, maintaining disciplined operations, and leading with a clear path forward – and communicating that all with intention.
If your company is looking to better understand your guests’ needs and preferences, your brand’s unique positioning, and where you might find traction and resilience as 2026 takes shape, reach out to learn more.
Anton Nicholas
Anton Nicholas is President, Communications at ICR, where he drives the firm’s go-to-market strategy and oversees the firm’s key practices supporting clients across the major sectors that move the global economy, including Technology, Energy, Healthcare, Real Estate, and Consumer sector practices. With more than 25 years of corporate leadership, crisis and consumer communications experience, Mr. Nicholas is a trusted advisor to executives navigating complex reputational challenges, bringing deep cross-sector expertise to high-stakes, multi-stakeholder mandates worldwide.
